Tensions have been rising across the Middle East for months, from the long-running conflict in Yemen to the latest escalation involving Iran, Israel, and the US. For many international firms, the Gulf States are a pillar of growth strategy, underpinned by liberalised regulatory frameworks, deepening sovereign capital and large-scale infrastructure investment. Investment pipelines into the region have been widened. Any rapid retreat would not simply defer expansion; it would unsettle investments built steadily through the 2020s.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, alongside the broader return of great power competition, has pushed political risk higher up the boardroom agenda. PwC’s 2025 Top 100 Law Firms Survey shows concerns about geopolitical instability have risen sharply in recent years. The widening confrontation involving Iran adds another layer of uncertainty for a region that sits at the centre of global energy and capital flows.
Nevertheless, Middle East expansion is not new for global firms. Many established outposts during earlier growth cycles in the 2000s and 2010s. What distinguishes the expansion of the 2020s is the depth of investment and institutional commitment that has been made across the GCC.
More than 20 firms have launched in Riyadh since 2023, after Saudi Arabia eased restrictions and introduced a formal licensing pathway for foreign practices. Much of the activity is linked to Vision 2030 and wider sovereign programmes, but the shift extends beyond the Kingdom. It is also visible in how firms are structuring themselves across multiple offices on the ground. Entry into Riyadh has not been limited to representative offices; it has required licensed platforms, resident partners and sustained local hiring.
The build-out is evident in the competition for senior partners. Recruitment data suggests more than 75 partner moves were recorded across the GCC in 2025 alone. The talent scramble has echoes of when US firms arrived in London en masse: new offices built around senior regional lawyers with established networks rather than exploratory teams assembled after the fact.
The pattern is visible in Kirkland & Ellis’ October 2023 Riyadh launch, built around the hire of partner Noor Al-Fawzan from Latham & Watkins’ Saudi practice. A lawyer who is both Saudi and New York qualified and previously worked with the World Bank’s Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency, Al-Fawzan gave Kirkland immediate local credibility in a market where internationally trained Saudi lawyers remain scarce. She joined alongside internal partner Kamran Bajwa, who had overseen the firm’s Middle East practice from Chicago since 2011. Her move between two rival international firms competing for the same Riyadh market highlighted the intensity of the emerging talent war in the Kingdom.
Subsequent entrants have been slower to move but followed a similar model, building office launches around senior regional partners rather than exploratory teams. Morgan Lewis anchored its November Riyadh entry with the recruitment of Sultan Almasoud, formerly Saudi managing partner at A&O Shearman. Reed Smith built its launch around disputes partner Emad Alshaikhi, previously co-managing partner of independent firm Mahassni & Co and a well-established regional arbitration practitioner. Trowers & Hamlins adopted a more locally rooted approach when it relaunched its office in November 2025 around Nasreen Alissa, founder of the Saudi practice The Law Firm of Nasreen Alissa, appointing her co-managing partner from day one. In each case the signal was clear: credible entry into the Saudi market depends on resident partners with established regional practices.
The competition for anchor partners has not been confined to Riyadh. Firms including Eversheds Sutherland, CMS and HFW have strengthened banking, energy and disputes benches across Riyadh, Abu Dhabi and Dubai, reflecting their broader regional recalibration. Paul Hastings’ March 2025 launch in Abu Dhabi was built around an audacious raid on White & Case, that assembled an infrastructure and energy practice that included Din Eshanov, George Kazakov and a further four projects, private equity, and finance partners.
Firms are also increasingly hiring from in-house to secure client relationships and sovereign investment expertise. King & Spalding’s July 2024 hire of Haifa Bahaian, formerly chief legal officer at Saudi Venture Capital, shows the appeal of lawyers embedded in sovereign investment networks. Pinsent Masons followed a similar path in February 2025, recruiting Marie Chowdhry from Saudi fintech Lean Technologies, adding client-side regulatory and fintech experience to its Dubai platform.
The underlying driver is capital. Deloitte estimates that Gulf sovereign wealth assets could reach approximately $18 trillion by 2030, up from around $12 trillion at the end of 2024. That scale of capital supports longer-horizon mandates and reduces sensitivity to short-term liquidity shocks.
Companies House filings show the depth of the trajectory. Clifford Chance’s Middle East and Turkey revenue has risen from £50m in 2021 to £102m in 2025 — a 104% increase. Linklaters, starting from a smaller base, has grown Middle East revenue by 180% over the same period. Headline growth figures are reflected across the market: PwC estimates year-on-year revenue growth for Top 20 firms at between 9 and 12 per cent. Gulf networks are increasingly becoming a material contributor to global firm revenues.
Earlier waves of Middle East expansion were more tightly bound to commodity and credit cycles. The expansion of the 2000s was driven by real estate, project finance and energy-linked liquidity. When the Global Financial Crisis hit, pipelines contracted, property values fell sharply and projects were suspended. Many firms paused investment and concentrated activity in Dubai as work slowed. Regional networks were often treated as extensions of London or New York — important for coverage, but not yet embedded growth engines.
The oil price collapse of 2014–16 reinforced that fragility. As Brent crude fell from over $100 to below $30 per barrel, public spending tightened and capital projects were reassessed. Firms including Baker Botts, Herbert Smith Freehills and Norton Rose Fulbright closed or consolidated Abu Dhabi and Doha offices. In both episodes, exposure to the Gulf remained closely tied to commodity prices and state liquidity.
The cycle that began in the early 2020s rests on different foundations, and the legal map has sharpened accordingly. Riyadh has emerged as the centre for sovereign and public-sector work; Abu Dhabi has consolidated its role as a capital allocation and restructuring hub; Dubai remains the region’s arbitration and professional-services platform. The older “Dubai-first” hierarchy has given way to a more differentiated corridor.
Firms that have embedded themselves across this corridor are better placed to navigate the current volatility. Yet the investment equation still matters. If the conflict drags on and begins to impede Vision 2030 or other infrastructure programmes, investment pipelines could narrow just as firms are scaling up their regional presence. Any sustained disruption would inevitably affect mandates. That said, the scale of capital already committed across the Gulf makes a rapid retreat unlikely. Institutional relationships have been built, platforms established and investment sunk. For international law firms, the current conflict will ultimately reveal how deeply they believe in the region’s longer-term trajectory.